Keller Augusta Principal Kate Keller, alongside two senior leaders from the firm’s recruitment team, Managing Director Sierra Olney and Senior Director Lauren Hodgetts, attended the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Annual Meeting and Apartment Strategies Conference that was held at the Aria Resort & Casino in Las Vegas from January 27-29. 

Conference attendees seemed cautiously optimistic about the outlook for multifamily, despite some lingering challenges.

There’s an expectation for increased transaction activity and potential diversification across various multifamily or housing subsectors; we gathered that supply is top of mind for market participants, while ground-up development is becoming more of a priority; and concerns about additional costs seem to be mounting.

Here is a collection of our five takeaways from the event:. 

1. There’s optimism in the face of uncertainty

 Long-term investor sentiment remains bullish compared to other commercial asset classes, despite fundamentals like rent growth having cooled due to elevated supply in some regions. Operating fundamentals, such as occupancy levels and net absorption, have been stronger than many had expected, and there’s still positivity around the upward trajectory for rents in some markets as the year progresses.

 There was a strong belief among conference attendees that the debt and equity capital markets are gradually opening up for developers and owners after a prolonged period of tight credit conditions and general economic uncertainty, which should incentivize more multifamily dealmaking activity throughout the year. 

 Together, these dynamics could lead to increased demand for talent well-versed in the multifamily space and equipped to tackle a variety of investment opportunities.

2. Investors are eager to transact

Many investors in attendance signaled that they plan to pursue more deals in 2026 than they did last year. While deal flow still feels somewhat constrained by elevated costs and the current interest rate environment, expectations are improving around increased transaction activity and potential geographical or multifamily, sector-specific expansion in search of acquisition opportunities. This illustrates confidence that market conditions are indeed improving.

But despite the eagerness, the multifamily sector is still focused on policy decisions, such as further interest rate cuts, or clearer signals or indicators from the economy and multifamily market itself to drive activity.

3. Questions around supply are prevalent

The sector seems to be currently navigating a supply-driven recalibration, shifting from a period of robust rental unit deliveries to what is now a projected supply shortage by 2028.

Multifamily starts in the U.S. have fallen off from a post-COVID peak in November 2022, despite some momentum in 2025. Housing starts for privately-owned buildings of five or more units dropped to roughly 347,000 in October 2025, an 11 percent decline from the year prior and 44 percent decline from the 2022 peak, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 

Overall housing starts across all unit types also remain below the pandemic-era highs, and the expectation is a potential supply shortage by late 2026, which would drive a rebound in occupancy and rent growth.

And although national multifamily vacancy rates remain well above pandemic-era lows, there are signs of stabilization as the market empties its pipeline of new deliveries. At the same time, net absorption has stayed resilient and leasing demand remains historically high even amid substantial supply, suggesting renter demand continues to outpace expectations.

4. There’s more urgency around ground-up development 

To capture opportunities from any anticipated or forthcoming supply gap, many investors in attendance pointed towards a shift from value-add to ground-up development.

The federal government’s pursuit of mission-driven investment could also help support new construction activity. For 2026, the Federal Housing Finance Agency set the multifamily loan purchase caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at $88 billion each, for a combined $176 billion. This represents roughly a 20.5 percent increase from the 2025 caps.

Homeownership remains far more expensive than renting. An analysis by LendingTree found that, on average, homeowners with a mortgage pay 36.9 percent more a month on their housing than renters. In certain metropolitan areas, the gap is much wider — in New York, homeowners pay 76.1 percent more than renters.

As a result, build-to-rent communities and single-family homes for rent have seen rapid growth. SFRs reached approximately 14.6 million units in 2025, the highest level since around 2016, and a seven-year high in stock.

5. Existing financing and economic headwinds are still a concern

Interest rates and refinancing risk continue to dominate discussions, even as the outlook brightens for ongoing monetary policy easing. Owners and lenders consistently cited interest rate uncertainty as a drag on investment volume and timelines.

Labor market softening and additional costs, such as rising insurance premiums or the heightened cost of construction, are tempering overall enthusiasm. Insurance premiums now account for roughly 17 percent of operating costs — up from 8 percent historically — and more than half of operating expense inflation since 2020 can be attributed to property insurance premiums, which are and have been significantly squeezing net operating income (NOI).

Also, some popular Sun Belt markets that have been the center of attention for many years, such as Austin, Phoenix or Las Vegas, are dealing with potential oversupply issues, while cities such as New York and San Francisco are seeing a notable recovery in demand as companies enforce stricter in-office policies.